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Bonds Slightly Stronger Overnight, but Finding Resistance

Bonds are slightly stronger overnight, led by strength in European bond markets.  While we'll take any gains we can get at the moment, this morning's are best characterized as incidental, having more to do with an absence of fresh motivation for further selling.  

The season and the calendar play into the bounce as well. Summertime weeks are notorious for starting out slow in the absence of major data or events over the weekend.  That makes Mondays primetime for "positional corrections."  For instance, if short positions have been dominating (i.e. traders betting on rates going higher by "selling short"), the positional correctional would be "short-covering" (i.e. buying bonds to close those bets).

Further to the point of the incidental nature of this morning's gains, we can take a look at the 5-day chart and notice that 10yr yields have been careful to respect the ledge (floor, resistance, etc.) at 2.362 that dominated Friday.  That will be the first resistance target (aka "floor we'd like to see broken") for the day.

2017-7-10 open

There are no significant economic reports on tap for today, so it will either be an unofficial 3rd day of the weekend, or we may get a glimpse of the underlying trading mentality heading into the rest of the week's events and Fed speakers.

MBS / Treasury Market Data

UMBS 5.5
98.29
+0.43
UMBS 6.0
100.09
+0.31
UMBS 6.5
101.59
+0.17
2 YR
4.8192
-0.0545
10 YR
4.5138
-0.0657
Pricing as of: 5/3 5:04PM EST
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