Outright bid prices aren't any lower than they were at the time of this morning's first alert, but liquidity has improved and "ask" prices have come down.  This means that current weakness is more "real" than previous weakness.  It also means that lenders are increasingly likely to be considering negative reprices as Fannie 3.5s are 6/32nds lower than some lenders' rate sheet print times.

Additionally, 10yr yields portray a negative trend heading into the afternoon.  There's some room to run before hitting the 2.52% technical level, and that's a risk we should account for heading into tomorrow's big-ticket events.  In other words, I wouldn't put it past bond markets to push for that ceiling before making the next decision.

If that does happen today, it would certainly spill over to MBS by enough to get the average lender in the mood to reprice.