Mortgage rates bounced modestly higher today, bringing the average lender back in line with last Wednesday's levels.  Bond markets (which underlie mortgage rate movement) suggested a slightly bigger bounce.  We may not have seen such a bounce simply due to timing.  Specifically, bonds weakened throughout the day, but few lenders adjusted rate sheets in the afternoon.  As such, we could begin the day tomorrow at a bit of a disadvantage, unless bond markets improve overnight.

For several months, 4.0% has been the most prevalently-quoted conventional 30yr fixed rate on top tier scenarios.  We discuss "rates" as moving up and down during that time but in reality, the only things moving are the upfront closing costs associated with that rate.  It's not uncommon for rates to be exceptionally flat heading into the end of the year, but in this case, they began flattening out in late September.  This increases the potential for a bigger move whenever we finally see a break outside the recent range.