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Strange Patterns Accompany July's Best Levels

Treasury yields and MBS prices are at the best levels of the month, and the whole affair couldn't be any less eventful.  Bond trading has been moving at a snail's pace--a fact made all the more interesting by bigger moves elsewhere.  

European stocks have had a rough morning, with most of the blame going to currency fluctuations after yesterday's ECB announcement (big spike in the Euro).

Domestic equities markets have also opened sharply lower after yesterday's all-time highs, and have moved a bit lower during domestic hours.  

Dollar/Yen has been on a tear lower, both in general (since July 11th) and again today.  Interestingly enough, that timing would seem to suggest a "risk-off" trade tied to political developments in the US with July 11th being the Trump Jr. email news and with today bringing overnight rumors of Trump looking into his legal authority to pardon his family members and himself.

Despite all of the drama and movement in markets that would normally impact MBS and Treasuries, neither look very interested.  Granted, trading levels are great, but intraday momentum has been lifeless.  This is more-or-less as-expected given the absence of data/events on the calendar, but it is made a bit surprising by the presence of bigger market movement elsewhere.  

All that having been said, you'll get no complaints from me about rates being in uneventful cruise control mode at the lowest levels in more than 3 weeks--especially when we weren't expecting anything interesting in the first place.  From a market-watching perspective, the suggestion is that we too remain in cruise control mode.  Keep an eye out for an alert if things suddenly and inexplicably deteriorate.  Apart from that, enjoy the modest gains and look forward to more relevant movement next week.

MBS / Treasury Market Data

UMBS 5.5
98.29
+0.43
UMBS 6.0
100.09
+0.31
UMBS 6.5
101.59
+0.17
2 YR
4.8192
-0.0545
10 YR
4.5138
-0.0657
Pricing as of: 5/3 5:04PM EST
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