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Back to Unchanged After Opening Stronger

First the caveat: any lenders that put out rates early (say, before 8:30am) have now seen more than an eighth of a point of weakness.  This is typically the threshold for negative reprice risk for the jumpiest lenders.  Given the size of yesterday's rally and the lack of urgency in this morning's selling pressure, I wouldn't necessarily be expecting negative reprices just yet.  All that having been said, if you were hoping to wake up to a strong continuation of yesterday's rally, you're out of luck.

Yields dipped in the overnight session (10's hit 2.18%) as European bond markets got caught up with yesterday afternoon's domestic market movement.  Everything bottomed out together just after 5am (Yen, stocks, bonds) and the "risk-off" trade had been stalled since then.  As domestic trading began, the risk-off trade began to unwind.  

Again, we're not yet seeing some massive bounce.  It's not scary enough to shake inclined floaters off the float boat (though that can change very quickly in these situations, so be on high alert).  Remember, that we're expecting some weakness either today or tomorrow and that if it doesn't erase more than half of yesterday's gains, it bodes well for floaters in the longer-term.  

The first order of business would be for the risk-off rally to break through mid-April lows.  So far today, it looks like the rally is considering that mid-April zone as the first opportunity to bounce.

2017-5-18 update

MBS / Treasury Market Data

UMBS 5.5
97.50
+0.42
UMBS 6.0
99.46
+0.40
UMBS 6.5
101.08
+0.34
2 YR
4.9393
-0.0209
10 YR
4.6129
-0.0216
Pricing as of: 5/2 6:36AM EST
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