I frequently use the lead-off analogy to characterize financial markets' propensity to start drifting in the direction of their next most-desired direction.  Defining "most-desired" is tricky business because it can often be the case that bonds don't know exactly which direction that will be until they get all the data.

The next 4 days offer a great example.  If, for instance, all of the key events unfold in a bond-friendly manner, bonds would likely be compelled to rally.  But if we adjust the probabilities of the outcomes to 50/50, a rally is far from guaranteed.  In fact, technicals and tradeflows are suggesting the "lead-off" in this case may be toward higher rates.

That leaves the onus on the events to unfold in a bond-friendly manner, or else...

For the record, the key events as I see them are today's potential healthcare vote, tomorrow's NFP, and the weekend's French runoff election.