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Bonds Facing Negative Cues and Calendar Challenges, Short-Term

The weekend of Good Friday is officially a 3.5-day weekend for bond markets, usually (sometimes, markets are open on Good Friday, but not tomorrow).  Unofficially, however, it's more like a 5 day weekend.  The first extra day is due to the following Monday normally seeing extremely low volumes (often the lowest since the December holidays).  The other half-day of unofficial time off is due to the Thursday before good Friday (that's today!) typically seeing declining volumes and a cessation of whatever trend was intact during the first part of the week.  

Cessation of intact trends, in this case, would mean we're at risk of losing ground into today's early close (2pm).  So far, we haven't lost much, but we are noticeably hitting some resistance at the lower boundary of 2.22%.  To make matters less exciting, out key "risk-on/off" indicator--Yen--is trending decidedly higher on the day.  This is already pulling Treasury yields above today's overhead technical ceiling at 2.25 (up to 2.257 now).

2017-4-13 update1

Take a good look at the gains in the morning's rate sheets and definitely consider cashing in chips for short-term lock time frames.  The more the gains have been passed along, the more compelling that case becomes.

MBS / Treasury Market Data

UMBS 5.5
98.29
+0.43
UMBS 6.0
100.09
+0.31
UMBS 6.5
101.59
+0.17
2 YR
4.8192
-0.0545
10 YR
4.5138
-0.0657
Pricing as of: 5/3 5:04PM EST
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