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Negative Reprice Risk Increasing Slightly

While MBS aren't much weaker than they were following this morning's ADP data, 10yr yields have pushed to the day's highest levels (up 1.6bps to 2.38).  Additionally, it looks like we're dealing with a general "risk-on" move in the first half hour of the NYSE Open (stocks and bond yields moving up together).  

With ISM Non-Manufacturing coming up at 10am, risks would be further increased if bonds respond negatively to that data.  As it stands, perhaps one or two of the jumpiest lenders may already be considering repricing, but the bigger risk would be in the event of a bad reaction to the 10am data.  In general, we'd need to see 2-3 more ticks of weakness (prices of 102-13 or below) before the typical "early" lender considered repricing, and 4-5 ticks for the average lender (i.e. prices at 102-11 or below)

MBS / Treasury Market Data

UMBS 5.5
98.29
+0.43
UMBS 6.0
100.09
+0.31
UMBS 6.5
101.59
+0.17
2 YR
4.8192
-0.0545
10 YR
4.5138
-0.0657
Pricing as of: 5/3 5:04PM EST
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