CONTACT ME
Slight Push Back From "Mixed-to-Stronger" Econ Data
  • Philly Fed: 32.8 vs 30.0 forecast
  • Jobless Claims: 241k vs 240k forecast (Continued Claims: 2.03 vs 2.05 mln)
  • Housing Starts: 1.288 mln vs 1.260 mln forecast
  • Building Permits: 1.213 mln vs 1.260 mln forecast

Apart from the decline in Building Permits, this morning's 8:30am data was generally slightly stronger.  Markets don't put much stock in most of these reports, however.  

Philly Fed would be the clear favorite for the biggest market-mover of the three, and it had the strongest showing.  Some highlights:

  • Employment Index 17.5 vs 11.1 previously
  • Prices Paid 40.7 vs 29.9 previously
  • 6-month expenditure outlook 34.5 vs 22.1 previously

The strength in the Philly Fed data looks to be putting some pressure on bond markets, but the emphasis is on "some" for now.  10yr yields were approaching 2.52% ahead of the data and then bounced less than one basis point higher (2.529 currently).

Fannie 3.5s haven't moved much since the data, currently down an eighth of a point at 101-18.  This could actually result in flat rate sheets this morning.  A few lenders might be slightly worse off, but some could improve vs yesterday if bonds don't embark on a selling spree between now and rate sheet print times.

There is no other significant data on tap for today, so we'll be left with a pretty clear sense of the organic market response to yesterday's Fed events.  In other words: we're more likely to witness true underlying momentum/biases without wondering if movements are temporary and data-driven.

MBS / Treasury Market Data

UMBS 5.5
97.45
+0.10
UMBS 6.0
99.43
+0.06
UMBS 6.5
101.06
+0.00
2 YR
4.9798
-0.0146
10 YR
4.6270
-0.0375
Pricing as of: 4/29 3:46PM EST
This Mortgage Market Update is provided in partnership with MBS Live and provided exclusively to MBS Live Subcribers.