When 10yr yields approached 2.50% earlier, the sell-off was finally abject enough for traders to take the risk of "buying the dip" in bond prices.  We've had a nice rally back since then.  10yr yields are all the way back down to 2.446 and Fannie 3.5s have bounce from 101-31 to 102-10.  Several lenders have repriced for the better and several more may consider doing the same.  But there's a catch.

On almost any other day, this would constitute a huge rally.  But today, those gains leave us at WORSE levels than anything seen yesterday--significantly worse, in fact.  Therein lies the problem.  Value buying (aka "buying the dip" and/or "catching the falling knife") is to be expected after a certain amount of selling momentum, but it's what happens AFTERWARD that's important.

In the current case, the dip-buying rally has failed to break today's earlier pivot points.  The best one to watch at the moment is actually a "gap" (a small range of yields, as opposed to one outright level) from 2.416 to 2.433.  Let's just call it 2.42-2.43% in 10yr yields.

That gap may or may not be broken in the following 2 hours, but the fact that it wasn't broken before the 3pm CME close is a big deal.  We could start to read some more significance into an 'after-hours' break if it occurred with strong volume and follow-through.