CONTACT ME
NFP Weaker Than Expected, But Bonds Sell Off Anyway
  • NFP 156k vs 175k forecast, 167k previously
  • Labor force participation 62.9 vs 62.8 previously
  • Unemployment rate 5.0 vs 4.9 forecast/previous
  • Wages +0.2 vs +0.2 forecast, +0.1 previous

Bonds initially picked up a few bps/ticks on these slightly weaker results with 10yr yields falling from 1.758 to 1.736. Fannie 3.0 MBS WERE up from 103-13 lows to 103-16 at the moment.  The problem with this data is that, while weaker, it's still reasonably close to consensus.  Furthermore, there are no glaring weaknesses in the internal components--especially the wage numbers, which came in as expected.

And wouldn't you know it...  bonds just happened to bounce sharply as I typed that last sentence, erasing ALL of the initial post-NFP gains.  10yr yields are quickly up to 1.77 and Fannie 3.0s are down 5 ticks.  Game-on for selling pressure.

MBS / Treasury Market Data

UMBS 5.5
99.02
-0.31
UMBS 6.0
100.55
-0.25
UMBS 6.5
101.85
-0.15
2 YR
4.7129
-0.0171
10 YR
4.3177
-0.0228
Pricing as of: 5/16 11:20PM EST
This Mortgage Market Update is provided in partnership with MBS Live and provided exclusively to MBS Live Subcribers.