- ECB leaves all rates unchanged; Draghi press conference begins now
- ECB typically saves
the more meaningful communications for the press conference - Economic data is 2nd fiddle to ECB and to trading momentum itself as technicals are in focus
Jobless Claims came out at 247k vs 263k and the Philly Fed data was mixed, but with a much weaker headline of -1.6 vs +8.9 forecast. That's a 43-year low for Jobless Claims and markets haven't batted much of an eyelash. In addition to telling us just how useless the Claims data has grown to be, this also speaks to traders' mindset today.
Far more important than the economic data is the ECB Press conference with Mario Draghi, which is currently underway. Markets are looking for clarity on Draghi's most recent market-moving
Indeed, that's how the press conference is going so far, and bond markets continue pushing into the weakest levels in more than a month.
At stake is the lens through which we'll ultimately view the important 1.84% level in 10yr yields. Here's what I mean by that: 1.84 has been a critical pivot point for 10yr Treasuries. I've often referred to it as the gateway to the "golden era" of
As you can see in the chart, yields mostly treated it as a floor (resistance) when they returned in early 2015. Now the 2016 trading range has been far more equivocal on the matter. The coming weeks will decide whether this well-traveled pivot point will end up being a friend or foe. Yesterday was the first time we broke above 1.84% in more than a month, and when it comes to technical analysis, it's the 2nd day after a breakout that determines if the breakout is confirmed. 10's are trading at 1.872 currently, so we're definitely on the ropes.