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Reprice Risk Considerations as Bonds Lose Ground

After an exceptionally strong morning, bond markets are losing ground heading into the afternoon.  The move wwas already underway as early as 11am, but has kicked into higher gear due to corporate issuance hedging after 1pm  (a big $9 bln deal from Berkshire Hathaway is the headliner).  That's not the only motivation, however, as equities markets bounced at the same time.

10yr yields are just over 3bps off their lows and Fannie 3.0s are down 4 ticks (.125) from the highs.  This is threshold of negative reprice risk, and the most reactive/aggressive lenders could already be considering it.  Risks would increase incrementally below 102-05 in Fannie 3.0 MBS, with 102-02 being the point at which reprices become probable.

MBS / Treasury Market Data

UMBS 5.5
97.86
+0.36
UMBS 6.0
99.78
+0.32
UMBS 6.5
101.42
+0.34
2 YR
4.8737
-0.0865
10 YR
4.5785
-0.0010
Pricing as of: 5/3 1:37AM EST
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