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Bonds Fighting Back, but Dependent on Oil/Stocks

After hitting highs of 1.885, 10yr yields have gradually regained some ground.  They're certainly not in a hurry to stampede below the pre-NFP levels just yet, but things could be much worse.  

The strength is drawing significantly on movements in stocks and oil prices.  Both moved below their pre-NFP levels, which resulted in bonds making it to their best post-NFP levels.  As soon as oil/stocks bounced, so did bonds (I'm watching a tick-by-tick overlay and there's no question about who's leading whom).

Long story short, pray for a slide in stocks and oil (to whatever extent you'd prefer low rates to higher stock prices).  Keep in mind that the NYSE open at 9:30am provides a significant jolt of liquidity for stocks (futures too), and can often mark the acceleration or reversal in the overnight/early-morning trend.

(In the time it took to write this, 10yr yields are down from 1.87 to 1.851.  Fannie 3.0s are back in positive territory at 102-08!)

MBS / Treasury Market Data

UMBS 5.5
98.23
+0.38
UMBS 6.0
100.06
+0.28
UMBS 6.5
101.64
+0.22
2 YR
4.8265
-0.0472
10 YR
4.5363
-0.0432
Pricing as of: 5/3 10:25AM EST
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