Potential Increase in Negative Reprice Risk Offset by Oil Weakness

Politicians are hitting the newswires regarding the stop-gap spending bill and bond markets don't like it.  At first glance, it might seem like the oil price implications would be beneficial for bond markets (i.e. lifting an export ban would put downward pressure on prices, and low oil prices have been a friend of low rates), but commodities traders were waiting for the 10:30am EIA inventory data--and for good reason.

EIA crude stocks rose 4.801 million barrels vs a forecast decline of 1.417 million.  Prices fell rapidly after the data, and this looks to be helping bond markets find their footing.

Even so, some lenders are still looking at an eighth of a point of weakness from morning rate sheet print times.  It's not likely that any lender priced aggressively enough to let that be of much concern, but the possibility can't be ruled out completely.

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