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Bonds Look Like They're Close to Doing Something Interesting

Many apologies for the vague headline and further apologies for the fact that it's entirely possible nothing interesting is going to happen.  But here's why I say it's possible:

2018-7-25 update

Long story short, we just had the most actively-traded minute (in terms of 10yr futures volumes) even as 10yr yields held fairly steady.  Meanwhile the yield curve looks like it's considering a break below the pivot point established last Friday (July 20).  Think of it like a ledge or shelf that acted as a floor after last Friday's spike.  If the curve moves back below this shelf, it could be good for 10yr yields, and this higher volume combined with the shelf-ish levels suggest that's an imminent possibility.  

10's are currently down just over 1bp at 2.94% and Fannie 4.0 MBS are up 3/32nds (0.09) at 101-23 (101.72).

MBS / Treasury Market Data

UMBS 5.0
99.37
+0.02
UMBS 5.5
100.76
+0.02
2 YR
3.9165
+0.0020
10 YR
3.9068
+0.0029
Pricing as of: 9/1 7:34PM EST
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