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Modest, Mixed Reaction to AM Econ Data
  • Jobless Claims
    • 5.245m vs 5.105m forecast
    • continued claims 11.976m vs 13.5 forecast
  • Philly Fed
    • -56.6 vs -30.0 forecast
  • Housing Starts
    • 1.216m vs 1.3m forecast, down 22.3% m/m

Bonds were slightly stronger in the overnight session with most of the gains arriving around 7:30am.  Jobless Claims data is a popular focus for both sides of the market right now and the lower-than-expected number in continued claims (and the absence of a much worse weekly claims number) gave a quick boost to stocks.  To a lesser extent, it prompted a brief, small selling spree in bonds.

Selling pressure didn't even register for MBS and it already looks to be reversing course in Treasuries.  10yr yields are back down to .61% (2bps stronger on the day).  2.5 UMBS are 1-2 ticks (.03-.06) stronger, trading just over 104.

MBS / Treasury Market Data

UMBS 5.5
98.72
+0.25
UMBS 6.0
100.39
+0.19
UMBS 6.5
101.81
+0.11
2 YR
4.7163
-0.0249
10 YR
4.3602
-0.0724
Pricing as of: 7/3 5:59PM EST
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