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Back in Positive Territory, But Rally Looks Bigger Up Close

After moving into weaker territory after this morning's economic data, bonds traded sideways in a narrow range.  After European trading ended for the day, the less liquid afternoon trading environment left an imbalance of buyers at trade desks.  Corporate bond 'pricings' (when previously announced/launched corporate deals finally hit the market) have also brought in some hedge buybacks (esoteric terms, to be sure, but there's an article for that).

The net effect is a move back into positive territory this afternoon, albeit just a small one.  At the risk of raining on the positive parade, today's movement is relatively inconsequential in the bigger picture, except inasmuch as it helps confirm a supportive presence just overhead at 2.75%.  It continues to be the case that traders will have no issues taking 10yr yields quickly up and over 2.75% if strong enough econ data comes out.

The following chart shows how stacks up in the recent context.

2019-3-5 update

MBS / Treasury Market Data

UMBS 5.0
99.35
-0.16
UMBS 5.5
100.74
-0.10
2 YR
3.9145
+0.0217
10 YR
3.9039
+0.0424
Pricing as of: 8/30 5:59PM EST
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