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Quiet Morning So Far; Some Ceiling Potential at 2.75%

It's very quiet out there this morning (not uncommon for Mondays).  About the only interesting development so far has been yet another clearly-delineated move at the 8:20am CME open (common recently).  Unlike several recent examples, today's move was positive for bonds, taking 10yr yields from 2.753 to 2.74%.

While that's not a big move by any means, it seems to have established a ceiling so far for the domestic session.  Specifically, bonds began to sell after bouncing at 2.74%, but they've been unable to move back above 2.753% despite several attempts.

This gives us a good overhead ceiling to watch today.  If it's broken, we might start to feel a bit more defensive.  If it remains unbroken, it builds a case for 2.75% as a technical ceiling (a level we've been talking about for weeks as the first line of defense in the event of a range breakout).

2019-3-4 range

MBS / Treasury Market Data

UMBS 5.0
99.35
-0.16
UMBS 5.5
100.74
-0.10
2 YR
3.9145
+0.0217
10 YR
3.9039
+0.0424
Pricing as of: 8/30 5:59PM EST
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