- Retail Sales
- -1.2 vs +0.2 forecast
- Core Retail Sales (excludes food/cars/gas/building materials)
- -1.7 vs +0.4 forecast
- Producer Price Index (core, y/y)
- 2.6 vs 2.5 forecast
- Jobless Claims
- 239k vs 225k forecast
Traders may be taking Retail Sales data collection with a grain of salt, but this was a big enough miss that it demands to be traded. Both stocks and bond yields have moved quickly lower in response. 10yr yields are down another 4bps from opening levels for a total of more than 5bps on the day (currently under 2.66). Fannie 3.5 MBS are up a quarter point and 4.0 coupons are up just over an eighth of a point.
In addition to the sales data, don't forget that Jobless Claims are becoming a relevant data point again. Simply put, they are increasingly speaking up about a potential shift in the labor market. In fact, on a quarter-over-quarter basis, the labor market shift has long since been confirmed (incidentally, this reeks of "skills gap" considering the record high job openings 2 days ago, but then again, job openings tend to top out just before a labor/economic cycle shifts, and that data was from December).
Here's a chart of continued claims (on the top) and Q/Q rate of change in continued claims on the bottom.