- ISM Manufacturing
- PMI 57.7 vs 59.0 forecast, 59.8 previously (lowest since April 2018)
- Prices Paid 71.6 vs 65.0 vs 66.9 previously
- New Orders 57.4 vs 61.8 previously (lowest since April 2017)
- Construction Spending
- 0.0 vs 0.1 forecast
Although the "prices paid" component of the ISM data is a potential concern (speaks to inflation), I'd look at that more as an indication of the impacts of tariffs increasing costs at the wholesale level, and as a justification for the big drop in New Orders. In other words "stuff's getting more expensive, so we can't buy as much of it." Could be a bit of an oversimplification, but it works.
The headline (57.5 PMI) is still the most important part of this report, and that's just barely a big enough miss to net a bit of extra buying demand in bonds, at least at first. 10s were briefly down to 3.146% in the wake of the data, but are now back up to 3.157%. Fannie 4.0 MBS are now down only about an eighth of a point after being down nearly a quarter of a point at the morning's weakest levels.