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Today's Big Bullet Dodged as Core Inflation Stays in Check
  Mortgage Market Update
Sep 28, 2018 11:12 AM ET
  • Consumption
    • +0.3 vs +0.3 forecast
  • Income
    • +0.3 vs +0.4 forecast
  • Core PCE (annual)
    • 2.0 vs 2.0 forecast

Annual core PCE of 2.0% is just where the Fed wants inflation to be in order to vet their current monetary policy stance.  If it had surprised to the upside by more than a little bit, that could have put immediate pressure on bonds.  By coming in as-expected, this inflation data isn't making any strong suggestion for today's bond market momentum.

Bonds are little-changed since the data, but have been weakening microscopically since the start of the session.  10yr yields are down 2 bps at 3.035%.  Fannie 4.0 MBS are 2 ticks (0.06) higher at 101-01 (101.03).

We're not quite out of the woods in terms of econ data, with Chicago PMI slated for 9:45am and Consumer Sentiment at 10am.  But neither of those reports are necessarily big market movers on a month/quarter-end Friday.

MBS / Treasury Market Data

UMBS 5.0
99.37
+0.02
UMBS 5.5
100.76
+0.02
2 YR
3.9165
+0.0020
10 YR
3.9068
+0.0029
Pricing as of: 9/1 7:34PM EST
This Mortgage Market Update is provided in partnership with MBS Live and provided exclusively to MBS Live Subcribers.

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Change Points
30 Yr. Fixed 6.43% +0.02 --
15 Yr. Fixed 5.95% 0.00 --
30 Yr. FHA 5.82% +0.02 --
30 Yr. Jumbo 6.62% 0.00 --
5/1 ARM 6.28% -0.01 --
Source: Mortgage News Daily
Rate Change Points
30 Yr. Fixed 6.44% -0.06 0.54
15 Yr. Fixed 5.88% -0.16 0.68
30 Yr. FHA 6.36% -0.06 0.85
30 Yr. Jumbo 6.75% +0.07 0.39
5/1 ARM 5.98% -0.27 0.65
Source: The Mortgage Bankers Association
Rate Change Points
30 Yr. Fixed 6.35% -0.51 0.00
15 Yr. Fixed 5.51% -0.65 0.00
Source: Freddie Mac
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Market Data

MBS Price Change
UMBS 5.0 99.37 +0.02
UMBS 5.5 100.76 +0.02
GNMA 5.0 99.93 +0.02
GNMA 5.5 100.71 -0.01
US Treasuries Yield Change
2 YR 3.917 +0.002
5 YR 3.704 +0.003
10 YR 3.907 +0.003
30 YR 4.196 +0.003
Pricing as of: 9/1 7:34PM EST

Recent Housing Data

Value Change
Mortgage Apps Aug 28 226.9 0.49%
Building Permits Mar 1 1.46M -3.95%
Housing Starts Mar 1 1.32M -13.15%
New Home Sales Mar 1 693K 4.68%
Pending Home Sales Feb 1 75.6 1.75%
Existing Home Sales Feb 1 3.97M -0.75%
Builder Confidence Mar 1 51 6.25%

Recent News