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30yr Bond Auction Breakdown

Today's auction was strong in and of itself, with most stats coming in at better levels than past averages suggested.  The strength came at a cost, however, given that it took yields rising rather abruptly in the morning hours in order to entice the level of demand seen at auction.

Here's a breakdown of the stats:

  • High yield 3.044 vs a 1pm when-issued yield of 3.045
    • given that 30yr auctions tend to come in over the 1pm WI, this is a net-positive
  • Bid to cover 2.41 vs a 6 auction average of 2.44
    • Weaker at first glance, but "refunding" auctions (like today's) have averaged 2.2-ish
  • Indirect bid: 61% vs an average of 62%.  
    • Close enough to call it "in-line" with expectations

The bond market's reaction has been largely positive.  It would be surprising to see any additional weakness after the morning sell-off anyway, and it would have been surprising if the auction's stats were any weaker than they were.  

10yr yields are off their 2.838% highs and now down to 2.83%.  Fannie 3.5 MBS are down a quarter of a point at 99-26 (99.81), but that's up from lows of 99-23 earlier (99.72).  NOTE: the chart and the "LOW" value show 99-20, but that was due to the illiquidity phenomenon described HERE.

MBS / Treasury Market Data

UMBS 5.0
99.37
+0.02
UMBS 5.5
100.76
+0.02
2 YR
3.9165
+0.0020
10 YR
3.9068
+0.0029
Pricing as of: 9/1 7:34PM EST
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