Today's auction was strong in and of itself, with most stats coming in at better levels than past averages suggested. The strength came at a cost, however, given that it took yields rising rather abruptly in the morning hours in order to entice the level of demand seen at auction.
Here's a breakdown of the stats:
- High yield 3.044 vs a 1pm when-issued yield of 3.045
- given that 30yr auctions tend to come in over the 1pm WI, this is a net-positive
- Bid to cover 2.41 vs a 6 auction average of 2.44
- Weaker at first glance, but "refunding" auctions (like today's) have averaged 2.2-ish
- Indirect bid: 61% vs an average of 62%.
- Close enough to call it "in-line" with expectations
The bond market's reaction has been largely positive. It would be surprising to see any additional weakness after the morning sell-off anyway, and it would have been surprising if the auction's stats were any weaker than they were.
10yr yields are off their 2.838% highs and now down to 2.83%. Fannie 3.5 MBS are down a quarter of a point at 99-26 (99.81), but that's up from lows of 99-23 earlier (99.72). NOTE: the chart and the "LOW" value show 99-20, but that was due to the illiquidity phenomenon described HERE.