- Jobless Claims
- 4427k vs 4200k forecast
- Continued Claims
- 15.976m vs 16.476m forecast
- Services PMI
- 27.0 vs 31.5 forecast, 39.8 previously
- Manufacturing PMI
- 36.9 vs 38.0 forecast, 48.5 previously
- New Home Sales
- 627k vs 645k forecast, 741k previously
The Fed's first UMBS 30yr operation of the day was from 9:50am through 10:10am. MBS rallied leading up to the operation and then rallied some more as it progressed. When it concluded, however, prices began to fall. This pattern has been reliable enough that it would be a surprise NOT to see it.
2.5 UMBS are still up an eighth on the day, but are 2-3 ticks (.06-.09) off the highs. 10yr yields are still basically unchanged, but at slightly lower yields now versus slightly higher yields earlier. Stocks have flipped the switch into rally mode and are now up more than 1% (S&P futures).