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MBS Quietly Battle Back as Treasuries Grind Sideways

Today's trading session has been a classic example of what we sometimes refer to as an unofficial 3rd day of the weekend. This is somewhat surprising, given that Friday was a high-volume, high-movement day, and that today's economic calendar had at least one big-ticket market mover.  Even so, the absence of volume and volatility speak for themselves.

MBS have been outperforming Treasuries for a few reasons.  The easiest observation to make is that Treasuries outperformed MBS on Friday, and today is payback.  It's not uncommon for Treasuries to lead bigger, risk-off moves and for MBS to close the gap when Treasuries settle down.  That's exactly what the 2-day pattern looks like.

2017-6-5 update

A fairly active slate of corporate bond issuance is also causing some extra pressure for Treasuries.  To understand why corporate issuance affects Treasuries more than MBS, read this primer.

MBS / Treasury Market Data

UMBS 5.5
99.11
+0.39
UMBS 6.0
100.61
+0.22
UMBS 6.5
101.99
+0.18
2 YR
4.6035
-0.1128
10 YR
4.2818
-0.0784
Pricing as of: 7/5 5:59PM EST
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