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NFP Weaker Than Expected, But Bonds Sell Off Anyway
  • NFP 156k vs 175k forecast, 167k previously
  • Labor force participation 62.9 vs 62.8 previously
  • Unemployment rate 5.0 vs 4.9 forecast/previous
  • Wages +0.2 vs +0.2 forecast, +0.1 previous

Bonds initially picked up a few bps/ticks on these slightly weaker results with 10yr yields falling from 1.758 to 1.736. Fannie 3.0 MBS WERE up from 103-13 lows to 103-16 at the moment.  The problem with this data is that, while weaker, it's still reasonably close to consensus.  Furthermore, there are no glaring weaknesses in the internal components--especially the wage numbers, which came in as expected.

And wouldn't you know it...  bonds just happened to bounce sharply as I typed that last sentence, erasing ALL of the initial post-NFP gains.  10yr yields are quickly up to 1.77 and Fannie 3.0s are down 5 ticks.  Game-on for selling pressure.

MBS / Treasury Market Data

UMBS 5.5
99.11
+0.39
UMBS 6.0
100.61
+0.22
UMBS 6.5
101.99
+0.18
2 YR
4.6035
-0.1128
10 YR
4.2818
-0.0784
Pricing as of: 7/5 5:59PM EST
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