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Some Surprises in Jobs Data
  • Nonfarm payrolls
    • -20.5m vs -22m forecast
  • Unemployment Rate
    • 14.7% vs 16.0% forecast
  • Avg hourly earnings
    • +4.7% vs +0.4% forecast
  • Avg Workweek
    • 34.2 hrs vs 33.7 hrs forecast, 34.1 previously

The big story here is the big mismatch between economists' expectations for wage growth and the actual number.  4.7 sounds like a small number, but here's how it looks in the bigger picture (remember, for years we were hoping to see the ANNUAL gain top 3.0%).  

20200507 avg hourly

The workweek hours were the other big surprise, though not as much of a divergence from past precedent.  Taken together, they suggest there's more work out there than expected, even if the overall situation is still pretty terrible.  The lower-than-expected unemployment rate makes a similar suggestion as that's based on a survey of  households rather than an official tally from employers.  In other words, fewer people view themselves as unemployed than employer payroll counts suggest (not a surprise given the decrease in the labor force participation rate.  If everyone who HAD considered themselves part of the labor force had been included, unemployment would be much higher.

Either way, the bond market is reacting to the numbers as a positive economic anecdote (RELATIVELY).  10yr yields are up 2bps at .659 and UMBS 2.5 coupons are roughly unchanged about an eighth of a point shy of 104.00. 

MBS / Treasury Market Data

UMBS 5.5
98.72
+0.25
UMBS 6.0
100.39
+0.19
UMBS 6.5
101.81
+0.11
2 YR
4.7163
-0.0249
10 YR
4.3602
-0.0724
Pricing as of: 7/3 5:59PM EST
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