Sign of the times: MBS just lost a full point, or close to it, at the fastest pace ever.  They then gained half a point in the space of a few trades.  So they're still half a point lower from the morning price plateau.

HALF A POINT!

Before March 2020, half a point = guaranteed negative reprices.  Heck, even as recently as 2 weeks ago, this would have seemed like a big deal.  Right now?  Not so much.  The swings are as big as we've ever seen.  Does that mean there's reprice risk?

Good question.  Reprice risk won't be playing by normal rules this week.  A handful of lenders may be spooked enough by a big slide in prices to pull the trigger, but that will often depend on how decent their initial rate sheets were for the day.  A majority of lenders will be more interested in their capacity constraints and funding line costs than outright MBS prices.

All that to day, yes, we're down half a point (depending on the second you happen to look), but that won't necessarily connote negative reprice risk in this environment.  And a counterpoint to that counterpoint: that doesn't mean you wouldn't/couldn't see reprices, just that they have a separate set of concerns, for the most part (again, truly massive selling can still be a trigger, but it's going to have to be more than half a point on a day where we've gained nearly 3 times that.