After moving higher for 5 days in a row, mortgage rates finally moved a bit lower today.  The improvement was fairly small, however, merely undoing Friday's modest move higher.  

Bonds markets (which dictate rates) continue to price in extremely high chances of a Fed rate hike next week.  That wasn't entirely the case before the recent 5-day losing streak.  In fact, the odds of a Fed rate hike more than doubled last week based on market metrics.  

This doesn't mean the Fed was half as likely to hike 2 weeks ago.  Rather, it has more to do with the fact that financial markets had been sort of complacent about adjusting bond prices to reflect the probability.  Complacency ended early last week and bond yields (and thus "rates") quickly adjusted to their new, higher reality).

In other words, the past week was more than just a random move inside a narrow range for mortgage rates.  It was a legitimate repricing of expectations.  It would take something very compelling to push rates significantly lower between now and next Wednesday's Fed announcement.  This could come in the form of shockingly bad employment numbers on Friday or massive geopolitical drama, but until it happens, it's safer to remain defensive with respect to locking and floating. Inclined floaters should understand there's not a huge payout if rates manage to improve this week.