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Bonds Hit by European Central Bank Warning

If you haven't heard of Francois Villeroy de Galhau, you have now.  Feel free to call him "ECB's Villeroy," which is keeping in the custom for market watchers' reference to ECB members (and Fed members for that matter).  

With that out of the way, ECB's Villeroy is today's market mover so far.  As we've seen time and again with the Fed, it doesn't take Bernanke, Yellen, or Powell to drop some sort of periodic bomb on the market's collective outlook.  The Fed's Bullard, for instance, has done this several times--so overtly that conspiracy theorists suggested he was being used as a trial balloon for Fed policy changes.

So what did Francois say?  Here are the relevant newswires:

- ECB'S VILLEROY SAYS END OF NET ASSET PURCHASES IS APPROACHING, WHETHER IT WILL BE IN SEPTEMBER OR DECEMBER IS NOT AN EXISTENTIAL QUESTION

- ECB'S VILLEROY SAYS WITHOUT DOUBT OUR COMMUNICATION WILL BE ADJUSTED GIVEN THAT CURRENT RATES GUIDANCE IS EXPLICITLY CONDITIONED ON THE END OF NET ASSET PURCHASES

- ECB'S VILLEROY SAYS WE COULD GIVE ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE ON TIMING OF FIRST RATE HIKE - "WELL PAST" MEANING AT LEAST SOME QUARTERS BUT NOT YEARS

Translation: "we're done buying bonds by the end of the year.  In the bigger picture, it doesn't matter if it's Sept or Dec.  The end of asset purchases will start the clock ticking for our first rate hike.  We've said that rate hike would arrive 'well past' the end of asset purchases.  Just so you know, that means a few quarters and not a few years."

Bottom line: this was just a hawkish clarification on the timing of the ECB's first rate hike after it ends asset purchases (currently scheduled to last only a few more months).  

Market reaction: European bond markets bolted toward higher yields immediately following the last two comments.  Selling ebbed as the US session began, but found a second wind in the European afternoon--all the while pulling use yields higher in more measured paces.

10yr yields are up 2.6bps at 2.995% and Fannie 4.0 MBS are down 2/32nds (.06) at 101-19 (101.59).  This isn't quite enough weakness for a negative reprice just yet, but it's enough to increase your intraday vigilance if you have loans to lock.

MBS / Treasury Market Data

UMBS 5.5
99.46
+0.07
UMBS 6.0
100.89
+0.05
2 YR
4.4945
-0.0226
10 YR
4.2291
-0.0234
Pricing as of: 7/23 1:01PM EST
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