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Bouncing Along The Lows, Near Reprice Risk Territory

The single highest recorded MBS price of the day was 102-21 and one half tick in Fannie 3.5 coupons (rounded up to 102-22).  

Current prices are 102-18 and one half tick (rounds up to 102-19), although we've been bouncing along 102-18 even for nearly an hour.  

That's a 3.5 tick gap from the highs to the lows (or just under an eighth of a point.... 7/64ths or .1094), and not quite enough for negative reprice risk unless a lender happened to price a bit too aggressively before 10am, thinking that bonds were on an upswing.

In other words, there's no legitimate reprice risk at the moment, but a lender or two could still consider it.  Bigger risks would arrive if 10yr yields broke through their highs just over 2.41% and if that coincided with a new move to new lows for MBS prices.  As of right now, we're holding fairly flat at the day's weakest levels.

MBS / Treasury Market Data

UMBS 5.5
99.24
-0.09
UMBS 6.0
100.75
-0.05
UMBS 6.5
102.05
+0.05
2 YR
4.7742
+0.0442
10 YR
4.3560
+0.0155
Pricing as of: 5/16 11:02AM EST
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