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Negative Reprice Risk Debuts as Early Gains Reverse

Bond markets have reversed course from slightly stronger levels at the open to moderate weakness as the NYSE session gets underway.  This has been a fairly common occurrence recently as bond-related ETF volume hits at 9:30am.

10yr yields have been pulled up to 1.632 from lows of 1.606 earlier.  Either of these levels could be argued to be the top of the previous range (which ran from roughly 1.48 to 1.62, give or take a few bps).  In that sense, this is somewhat disconcerting as it suggests "denial of reentry" to that previous range. 

Fannie 3.0s are only 2 ticks weaker on the day at the moment, but that's 4 ticks weaker from some lenders' rate sheet print times.  As such, negative reprices can't be ruled out of the vanguard of "quick-to-reprice" lenders.  It would take several more ticks of weakness for the average lender to consider repricing.  Some lenders have yet to put out their first rate sheets of the day.

MBS / Treasury Market Data

UMBS 5.5
98.78
-0.24
UMBS 6.0
100.40
-0.15
UMBS 6.5
101.75
-0.10
2 YR
4.8277
+0.0303
10 YR
4.4223
+0.0454
Pricing as of: 5/17 5:59PM EST
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