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I Like Big Bund Rallies and I Cannot Lie
  • Enigmatic mini-rally in US bond markets linked to bigger rally in German Bunds
  • Reminder: German Bunds are effectively THE "European bond market"
  • Headlines relating to ECB may be contributing
  • Given the 9:30am timing, domestic asset allocation could also be a factor
  • Nothing major for Treasuries/MBS, but has made for a small move into positive territory

Bond market made a small, surprising swoop to their best levels of the day for no apparent reason--at least as far as headlines and fundamentals were concerned.  

Looking a bit deeper, however, we see German Bunds engaged in a much sharper rally, relatively.  This may or may not have to do with a headline that was out just prior indicating that the German Parliament passed a resolution suggesting a split of ECB duties.  No one really knows what that means, but it may mean something to traders considering a noticeable shift in trading positions in parts of the European bond market.  (update, 10:25am, here's the full story from Bloomberg)

Whatever the case, here's how it all looks in a chart.  It's pretty obvious who is leading the charge:

2016-2-18 Bunds

MBS / Treasury Market Data

UMBS 5.5
98.78
-0.24
UMBS 6.0
100.40
-0.15
UMBS 6.5
101.75
-0.10
2 YR
4.8277
+0.0303
10 YR
4.4223
+0.0454
Pricing as of: 5/17 5:59PM EST
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