Household spending and business fixed investment
- Now increasing "at solid rates in recent months" versus "increasing moderately"
Labor Market
- now the "pace of job gains slowed and unemployment held steady" versus "solid paice of gains and declining unemployment"
- Fed's conclusion on jobs data is same as last statement. "Underutilization has diminished."
Market based inflation metrics
- Now "slightly" lower vs just "lower" previously
Global considerations
The following line was removed. This is one of two big deals in today's announcement: "Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term."
Also removed was the part about "monitoring developments abroad" in favor of "monitoring global economic and financial developments." A subtle change, to be sure, but it places more focus on the entire global economy instead of just implying China.
Rate Outlook (THE BIGGEST DEAL, and rarely changed/tweaked)
- "in determining WHETHER IT WILL BE APPROPRIATE TO RAISE THE TARGET RANGE AT ITS NEXT MEETING," was added in lieu of "in determining how long to maintain this target range."
This is EXACTLY the warning shot we were anxious about heading into this October statement. Frankly, I'm surprised the market hasn't done more with it, but then again, look at 2yr yields up 9 bps and the market is definitely reacting.