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Bonds Lose Some Ground After Stronger Philly Fed Data
  • Retail Sales
    • 0.3 vs 0.3 forecast
    • last month revised up 0.1
  • Import Prices
    • 0.3 vs 0.3 forecast
  • Philly Fed Business Index
    • 17.0 vs 3.8 forecast, 2.4 previously
    • Volatile series, but still the highest since May 2018

Is this big beat in the Philly Fed a sign of the times now that the Phase 1 trade deal is done?  

Well, no, actually.  Neither the word "China" nor "trade" appears in the report.  Could it be the case that the trade deal nonetheless impacted the responses of those surveyed?  Yes, that's definitely more possible.

Either way, bonds are typically willing to react to big moves in this data series and this morning is no exception.  10yr yields were just slightly positive on the day but are now up nearly 2 bps at 1.804.  Fannie 3.0 MBS are down 2 ticks (0.06) at 101-22 (101.69).

MBS / Treasury Market Data

UMBS 5.5
99.48
-0.17
UMBS 6.0
100.94
-0.08
2 YR
4.6221
+0.0541
10 YR
4.2008
+0.0128
Pricing as of: 3/28 2:15PM EST
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