Mortgage rates reacted somewhat harshly to an incredibly strong jobs report last Friday. At the time, I noted that such a jobs report would typically have done much more damage to rates, but that the current environment mitigates its impact for a few reasons. First off, labor market strength is taken for granted to some extent, because it's been consistently good for about as long as it's even been consistently good! Just as important is the fact that trade war fears are dominating the market's focus. Depending on the outcome of trade negotiations, market watchers expect a fairly wide spectrum of market outcomes.
Still, the jobs report has a more consistent track record of causing big market movement than any other piece of economic data. There will always be some obligatory response to a report as strong as that. That was indeed the case on Friday and mortgage lenders were a bit defensive in setting rates. Fortunately, the underlying bond market improved throughout the day and held onto that improvement today. As such, lenders were willing to offer much lower rates versus Friday.
Today's Most Prevalent Rates For Top Tier Scenarios
- 30YR FIXED -3.75 - 3.875%
- FHA/VA - 3.375%
- 15 YEAR FIXED - 3.375%
- 5 YEAR ARMS - 3.25-3.75% depending on the lender
Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations
- 2019 has been the best year for mortgage rates since 2011. Big, long-lasting improvements such as this one are increasingly susceptible to bounces/corrections
- Fed policy and the US/China trade war have been key players. Major updates on either front could cause a volatile reaction in rates
- The Fed and the bond market (which dictates rates) will be watching economic data closely, both at home and abroad, as well as trade war updates. The stronger the data and trade relations, the more rates could rise, while weaker data and trade wars will lead to new long-term lows.
- Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders. The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable. Rates appearing on this page are "effective rates" that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.