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Modest Improvements After Week's Biggest Data
  • Durable Goods
    • 0.2 vs -1.0 forecast
    • Excluding defense spendings -0.6 vs +1.3 forecast
  • Cap-Ex (excludes defense and aircraft)
    • -0.2 vs 0.0 forecast
  • Core PCE Inflation
    • 0.1 vs 0.2 month-over-month
    • 1.8 vs 1.8 year-over-year

Bonds were trading slightly weaker ahead of the data but improved modestly afterward.  10yr yields dropped from 1.719 to 1.696(unchanged on the day).  Fannie 3.0 MBS were 3 ticks (0.09) weaker, but have moved into positive territory by one tick (0.03) at 101-08 (101.25).

If there's a case to be made for a market mover in the data, it's likely the negative cap-ex reading.  The slide in month-over-month Core CPI is perhaps worth some attention, but that 0.1 is rounded down from 0.1403, so it's not quite as downbeat as it may seem.

The day's only remaining econ data is Consumer Sentiment at 10am.  Given the bigger-than-normal reaction to Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, this one has more potential than normal.

MBS / Treasury Market Data

UMBS 5.5
99.48
-0.17
UMBS 6.0
100.94
-0.08
2 YR
4.6044
+0.0364
10 YR
4.2107
+0.0227
Pricing as of: 3/28 2:15PM EST
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