Mortgage rates held steady today--a welcome development after yesterday's move higher.  In the bigger picture, rates have done an acceptable job of moving back down after spiking at the fastest one-week pace in years 2 weeks ago.  The entirety of last week was spent moving lower.  Now this week's theme seems to be best described as holding steady.

To quantify the timeline described above, the big spike in rates earlier this month took the average lender .375% to .50% higher in rate from the long term lows seen at the beginning of the month.  Last week's improvements have only allowed lenders to drop rates by about .125% from those recent highs.  

The bond market (which dictates rates) is on the lookout for cues from two key sources at the moment.  On the one hand, unscheduled, unexpected headlines concerning the trade war (or other geopolitical headlines) have had a clear impact on rates.  They will continue to be potential sources of volatility.

On the other hand, there's the logical, old-fashioned connection with economic data.  Reports that point to a stronger economy will generally put upward pressure on rates, but some reports are more relevant than others in that regard. Tomorrow's PCE inflation data is generally one of the more meaningful reports as an uptick in inflation would prevent the Fed from being as aggressive as it might otherwise be with monetary policy (which is good for rates!).  Tomorrow also brings the important Durable Goods report as well as an update on Consumer Sentiment.