Mortgage rates were slightly higher today, marking the 6th day in a row where they've reversed course versus the previous day.  This is the sort of behavior we see when underlying financial markets are having a hard time making up their mind (or are simply waiting for something before committing to the next big move).

In the case of mortgage rates, the underlying financial market is the bond market.  There are specific bonds that most directly affect mortgage rates, but they are almost always moving in the same direction as other bonds anyway.  That allows us to use something like the 10yr Treasury yield to keep an eye on interest rate momentum.  There we see yields locked in an increasingly narrow range since the beginning of the year.

Movements inside that range aren't important to the bigger rate picture.  When rates finally break out, the stakes will be higher.  As to when that might be, mid-March is the current target, due to a few variables that won't become known until then.  Of course, if the breakout happens sooner, you'll hear it here first.  Between now and then, we can continue to track the smaller day to day moves occurring inside the narrow, sideways range.  Today's happened to leave rates slightly higher, but if the last 6 days are any indication, they could easily bounce right back on Tuesday (markets are closed on Monday for Presidents Day).