Mortgage rates were only slightly higher today, and didn't rise enough to make it above the levels that showed up somewhat abruptly on Wednesday. That keeps this week fairly tame in terms of volatility. In fact, most of January has been fairly calm after rates initially rebounded from the long-term lows seen in the first few days of the year. That may change next week, however, for a variety of reasons.
The government re-opening is only one of these reasons and probably not the most important one. Rather, investors will focus on any major changes in the Federal Reserve's policy statement on Wednesday. Then on Friday, we'll get the big jobs report, which is the most consistent source of volatility and inspiration for rates when it comes to economic data. Economists expect a major contraction in the job count from last month. Such big changes in forecasts leave lots of room for investors to be surprised. The more surprised they are, the faster rates could move, for better or worse.