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Under Some Pressure Early; Reprice Risk Debuts

A few lenders could already be considering negative reprices, but they would have needed to be out with the morning's first rate sheets very early and those rate sheets would have needed to be fairly aggressive relative to yesterday.

Either way, we're coping with potentially important weakness.  Reason being: it took a noticeable turn at the 8:20am CME open. This lets us know that traders are selling simply because they were planning on selling when they got in today (many big accounts begin their trading day at 8:20am).  Bond yields went a bit higher again at the 9:30am NYSE Open--another milestone for trading positions and liquidity in the morning.

All of the above could suggest that the "short positions" mentioned in the Day ahead are finally washed out (i.e. they've been forced to buy bonds) and now the traders who've bought bonds in recent weeks are finally booking their profits (i.e. they're selling bonds heading into the weekend).  Notably, Treasuries weren't interested in following European headlines overnight (ECB officials anonymously said they had indeed done more to map out a retreat from their bond buying program than Draghi shared yesterday).  

2017-9-8 Update

10yr yields are currently up 2.6bps at 2.068 (2.06 is an important technical level, so trading above it isn't good).  Fannie 3.5s are down 5/32nds from the morning's highs and Fannie 3.0s are down 6/32nds--just enough for negative reprice risk.

MBS / Treasury Market Data

UMBS 5.5
97.07
-0.38
UMBS 6.0
99.11
-0.33
UMBS 6.5
100.92
-0.25
2 YR
4.9965
+0.0644
10 YR
4.7029
+0.0607
Pricing as of: 4/25 3:19PM EST
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