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Bonds Much Weaker Overnight as FBI Clears Clinton

Over the weekend, news broke that the FBI has "not changed its conclusions" from July regarding the Clinton email server.  Up to that point, the prospect of an indictment had markets bracing for a Trump victory (bad for stocks, good for bonds).  Naturally, the headline takes the Trump victory trade in the other direction, doing significant damage to bonds and offering a big boost to stock futures.

All that having been said, this whole situation is a mess, and everyone expects it to continue to be a mess.  If this weekend's developments were somehow able to guarantee the election outcome, free from the fierce debate that will likely follow, we'd certainly be seeing a much bigger move in stocks and bonds.  

As it stands, 10yr yields are up 3.7bps to 1.815 and Fannie 3.0s are down 3 ticks at 103-01.  That's not exactly the end of the world, even if it's less pleasant that Friday's closing levels.  This week's Treasury auction cycle is likely contributing to some of MBS outperformance (i.e. Treasuries have 3 days of "supply" coming up on a holiday-shortened election week, so traders might be a bit worried about demand, and now may be slightly more worried after the weekend's headlines).

There are no significant economic reports today, but the 9:30am NYSE open could bring some volatility due to ETF trading.

MBS / Treasury Market Data

UMBS 5.5
97.31
0.00
UMBS 6.0
99.32
+0.02
UMBS 6.5
101.10
+0.01
2 YR
4.9879
-0.0015
10 YR
4.6222
-0.0043
Pricing as of: 4/19 5:04PM EST
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