- Fannie 3.0s down 4 ticks from pre-data levels
- 10yr yields up more than 3 bps
- Philly Fed data hurt (big beat, see chart)
- corporate bond issuance not helping
Bond markets had a stronger overnight session as the rest of the world got a chance to trade the Fed meeting. This can always make for some interesting momentum considering that, by the time the Fed Announcement comes out, both Asian and European markets are
Asian equities markets rose briefly to
By those powers combined, 10yr yields hit 1.854 at their best levels. While that's a nice amount of improvement vs yesterday, it's also close enough to the 1.84% technical zone that will serve as a tipping point for many traders. Some of them will use it as an opportunity to "re-short" the bond market. In other words, their view is that bonds have gained enough to be sold again.
In fact, that phenomenon was already playing out to some extent ahead of this morning's data. Selling pressure continued after the data--especially the stronger-than-expected Philly Fed Index. How strong was it?
There are definitely distinct phases in this series, and it jumped completely out of its longest post-crisis negative phase right back to levels in the middle of its typical positive phase. Investors are cautious about the potential for this one report to be an outlier. If they weren't, we'd likely be seeing bigger losses in bonds.
Even then, the losses have almost completely erased the overnight gains in Treasuries. MBS are still up an eighth of a point on the day at 101-30. Oil price gains are definitely adding to the pressure, having risen