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The Day Ahead: Bond Fires Can Burn As Long As There's Fuel

If you've been tuned in to any reasonable extent--and no one would blame you if you weren't--you're already well aware that Bonds have been on fire so far in 2016.  The fuel for that fire has been a nearly limitless supply of stock market negativity and oil price declines.  In percentage terms, it's actually the worst January on record for equities markets. 

Though I know we're beating on a dead horse, the theme is theme.  That money from the massive equities/commodities selling needs somewhere to go, and bonds get the nod.  They will continue to get the nod until massive equities/commodities selling is no longer churning up money that seeks safe havens.  There might be a minor divergence between stocks/bonds/oil in the shorter term, but so far, these instances have proved to be the fleeting exceptions to an otherwise fairly consistent rule.

2015-1-19 10yr vs Stocks vs Oil

Today brings the Consumer Price Index and Housing Starts data.  Of course no one will much care or notice if stocks/oil happen to be in the throes of a big move when the data comes out.  Even if stocks are steady, it still wouldn't necessarily be a surprise for the economic data to be less than inspiring, simply because bonds will be waiting for stocks/oil to make a move.  It won't always be like this, but it is now.

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