The Morning After: Biggest Move Isn't in U.S.

At a glance:

  • Oil prices down big, helping bonds
  • European bond yields down big, helped Treasuries/MBS at first
  • Europe and oil bottomed out from 3-5am, and we've been drifting in stronger territory
  • Fed was FULLY priced in, and some of the gains are simply due to traders lowering their defenses and getting back into the market

Recall that the IMF and World Bank both implored the Fed to hold off on hiking rates due to the global impact.  While it's too soon to tell how that will play out over time, European bond markets are taking the rate hike news even more seriously than US bond markets.  German Bunds rocketed lower in yield overnight, dropping from .68 to .60.  US 10yr Treasuries only moved about 5bps lower in comparison.

European bond markets bounced just after 5am and we've been leaking toward gradually weaker levels since then.  Oil prices have definitely been a factor.  Fortunately, the overnight gains left us wth enough of a cushion that we're still well into positive territory.

Morning data was a non-event with Jobless Claims in line with expectations and Philly Fed quite a bit weaker (-5.9 vs 1.5).  Markets are more interested in sorting out the tradeflow momentum--i.e. the glut of trading goals/ideas that was simply waiting for the Fed Announcement before being unleashed.  It's actually been far less intense than it might have been, but of course many are coping with the paradox of rates moving lower today despite the Fed's hike yesterday.

MBS / Treasury Market Data

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