Mortgage rates continued higher at a relatively fast pace today, pushing farther into the highest levels since early July.  As of this afternoon, the average lender is right in line with those rate offerings from July.  Any higher and we'd have to go back another 2 months to see comparable rates.

While we had been able to say that the volatility of the past few weeks hadn't yet created an eighth of a percentage point spike in 30yr fixed rates, that definitively changed today.  In fact, for many lenders, the cost of offering a 30yr fixed rate of 3.875% last week now matches the cost of a 4.0% rate this week.  Clients who'd seen quotes of 4.0% are now seeing 4.125%.  The average is somewhere in between for top tier scenarios.

There are several major flashpoints in the coming days that could help or hurt.  Until we can be certain they're helping, it makes more sense to be defensive in these situations when it comes to locking vs floating.  The first event happens tomorrow morning with the policy announcement from the European Central Bank.  If rates in global bond markets happen to be surging lower after that, the outlook for a broader bounce in mortgage rates would improve.