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Check Out The Updated Fed Forecasts!

This is fairly striking, actually, and likely a major source of the bond market's eventual positive reaction to the 2pm release.  The red dots are from June.  You can think of those as Fed members who have migrated to become green dots on the chart.  Blue dots are unchanged.  Check out the mass exodus toward lower rate expectations:

2016-9-21 Updated dots

These are fairly big moves, especially in 2017-2018.  The median dot for 2017 fell from 1.625 to 1.125, and for 2018 from 2.375 to 1.875.

Translation: THE FED SEES RATES HALF A POINT LOWER OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS COMPARED TO THEIR JUNE FORECASTS!

It's not necessarily that we didn't expect the Fed "dots" would have to come down.  It's just that this is a fairly abrupt adjustment.  This may be the quickest pace at which we've seen them removing their heads from the proverbial sand.

MBS / Treasury Market Data

UMBS 5.5
97.66
+0.18
UMBS 6.0
99.61
+0.14
UMBS 6.5
101.29
+0.15
2 YR
4.9300
+0.0055
10 YR
4.6170
+0.0156
Pricing as of: 4/24 12:57AM EST
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