Mortgage rates plummeted today, relatively speaking, fully erasing the damage done 2 weeks ago after the Fed Minutes sent rates higher at the fastest pace in months.  Let's continue with that same logic.  If rates moved quickly higher 2 weeks ago because the Fed Minutes suggested increased chances of a June hike, it would stand to reason that rates should fall if something happened to decrease the likelihood of a June hike.  As it happens, that's exactly what this morning's jobs report did!

In general, the Fed can afford to tune out employment data because employment data has been so reliably strong and steady.  But this morning's employment data was SO weak that it could understandably give the Fed pause in rushing to hike rates in June.  Of course we've already talked about how overseas events will probably keep the Fed on hold in June anyway, but today's jobs report simply seals the deal (to whatever extent it can be sealed).  

The average lender is quoting rates that are an eighth of a point lower than yesterday, although the upfront costs associated with those rates would be slightly higher.  In other words, if a lender was quoting 3.75% yesterday, they're likely quoting 3.625% today on the same scenario, but with slightly higher closing costs (or lower lender credit, depending on the scenario).  With that improvement, rates are now back in line with 3-week lows.